Worldwide PC shipment forecasts for 2013 are now projecting a 9.7 percent decrease year-over-year, due to the continued expansion of mobile device options and the end of the emerging market growth on which the industry had been relying, deepening the longest market contraction on record, according to a recent International Data Corporation (IDC) report. The market as a whole is projected to decline through at least 2014, with only modest, single-digit growth through 2015 and beyond, but is not expected to ever regain the peak volumes last seen in 2011.
“The days where one can assume tablet disruptions are purely a First World problem are over,” said Jay Chou, IDC senior research analyst for the Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers. “Advances in PC hardware, such as improvements in the power efficiency of x86 processors remain encouraging, and Windows 8.1 is also expected to address a number of well-documented concerns. However, the current PC usage experience falls short of meeting changing usage patterns that are spreading through all regions, especially as tablet price and performance become ever more attractive.”
Additional findings from the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker include:
- The results of the second quarter were in line with original forecast, however stubbornly depressed consumer interest as well as a number of other issues led to the further downgrading of the PC outlook.
- Among these issues are: anxiety over the possible tapering of the U.S. quantitative easing program, weak intrinsic PC demand across portions of other formerly strong-growth areas, emerging markets as a whole are expected to contract at a steeper rate than mature regions to see declines through at least 2014 and beginning this year.
- China’s revised forecast, which leads this last trend, calls for a double-digit decline in shipments this year compared to 2012, as channel sources report high levels of stagnant inventory and continued enthusiasm for tablets and smartphones.
- Beyond 2014, the market is projected to slowly rebound, but it is expected to be driven primarily by lifecycle replacements in the future.
“The second quarter of 2013 was the third consecutive quarter where the U.S. market came through stronger than the worldwide market. This was largely due to some recovery in the overall economy and channel inventory replenishment,” said Rajani Singh, IDC research analyst for client computing. “Following the stronger than expected 2Q13, we expect the second half of 2013 to restore some volume momentum driven largely by better channel involvement of top vendors and industry restructuring/alignment. We also anticipate operating system migration (Windows XP to 7) will drive some volume in the commercial segment. Entry-level ultraslim systems and lower-priced convertibles will also be bright spots in an otherwise still troubled consumer market.”
(For additional information, contact: International Data Corporation, www.idc.com.)